The 2025 Oscar race is far more uncertain than in years past, particularly for the coveted best picture award. There isn’t a dazzling and widely admired frontrunner — like 2023’s “Oppenheimer” or 2022’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — and the once predicted high-profile award hopefuls — “Megalopolis,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “Joker: Folie à Deux” — wound up critical and commercial disappointments. With these failures and other highly anticipated releases being delayed and impelled into 2025, some of the more esoteric festival darlings have emerged as the top Oscar contenders.
Of course, the widely known works “Dune: Part Two,” “Gladiator II,” “Saturday Night,” “Wicked” and “Inside Out 2” are very much in contention (“Dune” and “Gladiator II” will likely see best picture nominations), but sources such as Vogue, Variety and The Hollywood Reporter are predicting that nominations will be mostly dominated by these lesser-known, “stranger” festival films.
As the fall festivals (Venice, Toronto, BFI London and New York) — the last significant events of the year — have recently concluded, here are a few of these notable productions that have amassed significant award show buzz and are currently favored for Oscar recognition.
A24 acquired “The Brutalist” at the Venice Film Festival after it impressed the masses. The amiably named, 215-minute film — with a built-in 15-minute intermission — chronicles the exploits of a Hungarian-born Jewish architect (played by Adrien Brody), who arrives in post-WWII America in search of the proverbial “American Dream.” But, as Rotten Tomatoes tritely writes, “power and legacy come at a heavy cost…”
Some have this film as their front-runner for best picture, reasoning that the academy will enjoy its classical, dramatic style, epical scope and significant subject matter. The film is one of three major Oscar contenders that explores Jewish oppression (“September 5” and “A Real Pain” are the others). Director Brady Corbet is widely predicted to be nominated for best director, and a supposedly strong performance by Adrien Brody may earn him a best actor nod, as well.
There’s much going for “Anora.” Winning the Palme d’Or — the highest award at the Cannes Film Festival — positions the film nicely, given that three of the last four Palme d’Or recipients have been nominated for best picture. Further, many in the industry believe Sean Baker (“Florida Project,” “Tangerine”), who’s never been nominated for an Oscar, will finally achieve his well-deserved academy recognition. He himself would be eligible for best director, best original screenplay and best editing categories.
The comedic and compelling “Anora,” set in Brooklyn, follows a young exotic dancer and sex worker, who falls for and marries the son of a Russian oligarch. But, the relationship is threatened when this news hits Russia, and the royal parents decide to travel to New York to end the marriage. Mikey Madison is said to be a lock for a best actress nomination due to her amazing breakout performance.
After premiering at the Telluride Film Festival in August, “Conclave” has received great critical praise, especially for its acting portrayals. To many fans’ pleasure, Ralph Fiennes is receiving praise for this supposed career-highlight performance. Fiennes — who infamously has zero Oscars despite two nominations — is a favorite for a best actor nomination, and director Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front,” which received nine nominations and four Oscar wins in 2023) hopes to see some semblance of the same success he had two years ago.
The twisty and fast-paced “Conclave” observes Cardinal Lawrence (Fiennes), who’s participating in the selection of a new pope. While surrounded by powerful religious figures in the restricted and mantled Vatican, Lawrence begins to uncover successive clues that may expose the Roman Catholic Church’s well-concealed secrets. With its power and succession themes, many are calling it the most timely film of the year.
The ambitiously unique “Emilia Perez” is somehow all at once a Mexico City crime family drama, a transgender empowerment narrative and a musical. The distinctive and emotional story concerns a kingpin cartel boss (relative newcomer Karla Sofía Gascón), who employs a lowly lawyer (Zoe Saldana) to help fake his death so he can transition to a woman and exist freely by a new name: Emilia Perez. Fan favorite Selena Gomez also plays a supporting role. It is highly speculated that all three actresses may receive nominations in their respective categories. Director Jacques Audiard seeks a second nomination (following “The Prophet,” nominated for best international feature in 2010) and first win.
Beyond the four headliners, here are the other works that will contend as well: “A Complete Unknown,” starring Timothee Chalamet as icon Bob Dylan, will feature some awesome music. “Blitz,” directed by Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave”), is projected to obtain a best picture nomination. “A Real Pain” sees strong performances from Jesse Eisenberg — who directed as well — and Kieran Culkin. “September 5” follows the 11 Israeli athletes murdered at the 1972 Munich Olympic Games. “Wild Robot” is perhaps “Inside Out 2’s” most significant animated competitor. Finally, “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” is a political thriller set in Iran, and the film received a special jury prize at Cannes.
