North Carolina’s Republican Senator Thom Tillis has a hazy path to re-election in 2026 — Tillis faces strife within the Republican caucus and resulting primary challenges. 

His positions on key issues and indications of unfavorability toward several of President Trump’s cabinet nominees have drawn criticism from the party’s right-wing, who wish to replace Tillis with a more hardline candidate. 

One point of contention is Tillis’ approach to confirming Trump’s cabinet nominees. Though he backed Pete Hegseth for defense secretary, he expressed concerns over allegations against Hegseth. Tillis changed his stance after a 24-hour blitz from Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and John Thune, Senate majority leader. 

Tillis also conveyed concern over the aggressive tactics used to push through Trump’s nominees, saying, “If anything, they could create a structural problem for future nominees if they overreach,” This disconnect has not been well received by the GOP’s conservative base, which is freshly energized due to Trump’s re-election.

Tillis has faced backlash from North Carolina Republicans in the past. In June 2023, the party censured him for supporting legislation on gun control and same-sex marriage. This demonstrates cracks in party unity and highlights growing frustration among conservative activists. The base clarified that many in the party view him as insufficiently aligned with their priorities. 

In response to the North Carolina Republican Party’s censure over his bipartisan efforts, Senator Thom Tillis remained undeterred, stating, “It was a good weekend, in my opinion.” This nonchalant reaction underscores his commitment to his legislative approach, even amid intra-party disagreements.

As a result, challengers have emerged for the 2026 Senate primary. Andy Nilsson, a businessman and former candidate for lieutenant governor, declared his candidacy and is running from Tillis’ right. Nilsson’s campaign website says he is “unapologetically MAGA,” and will “drain the swamp of career politicians, including Thom Tillis.” On the periphery, there is speculation that Lara Trump, the daughter-in-law of the President, could be a potential contender. Her ties to Trump would make her a favorable primary opponent.

If Tillis loses the primary, the shift would undoubtedly reshape North Carolina’s representation in the Senate. A more conservative candidate would further Trump’s initiatives and serve as a crucial ally in a tightly held GOP majority. However, such a change would alienate moderate Republicans and independents critical to North Carolina’s status as a swing state. A far-right nominee will face difficulties in the general election, giving Democrats an opportunity to flip the seat.

Beyond current electoral implications, replacing Tillis would mean losing a senior senator with relationships, committee assignments, and familiarity in Washington. His ability to negotiate across the aisle and influence legislative matters would be difficult to replace with a new senator. Essentially, a change of this nature would reduce North Carolina’s leverage in national policy discussions.

If Tillis survives the primary challenges, he will need to appeal to the broader electorate in what is to be a competitive general election. His path to a third term is anything but certain, and the coming months will reveal whether he can navigate the ideological divisions within the Republican Party to secure re-election.